In mid-2020, Pew Research Center conducted a survey to identify pandemic “struggles and silver linings” in people’s own words. What those voices made clear was that there was no one typical experience. Age, race, location, financial status, and many other variables influenced experiences and outcomes. For almost all respondents (89%), there were negative experiences involving loss, frustration, grief, and loneliness, yet a surprising 73% were able to identify silver linings, involving most often the deepening of personal relationships. “Being grateful for what I have” made its way into many remarks.
Schools too experienced both struggles and silver linings throughout the past two years and, like people, there was no one typical experience or outcome. What we did share, though, was that change and uncertainty were around every corner.
School Outcomes
Parents tested new school types during the pandemic to find learning solutions that worked for their ever-changing situations. Although school switching is not unusual, it rose to new heights because of pandemic pressures. Providing hard data on how this is altering the education landscape is hard to pin down because of the continued fluidity of the situation and how parents define the various modes they use. For example, parents count homeschooling as both full-time schooling and learning supplements, making it difficult to estimate how many have switched to this mode entirely. Charter schools were reported to be one of the largest beneficiaries of new students, but many of those students switched to virtual charter schools and it is too early to tell whether these changes will be permanent or temporary post-pandemic. Independent schools also saw enrollment gains in some regions, but school leaders worry that new families may not stay because of cost constraints.
Average enrollment at NAIS member schools, according to DASL, took a small nosedive in the first part of the pandemic but rose in 2021–2022. Although we have not yet reached pre-Great Recession numbers of 390 students per NAIS member school, today’s average (367) is moving up after steadily falling for the past five years. But the picture is mixed for the years ahead. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, private school enrollments are expected to remain flat over the next decade. They calculate that 5.7 million students were enrolled in private schools in fall 2017 and project a similar number for 2029. One question we need to explore is whether the potential for growth is higher if school costs were lower. For example, a study conducted by EdChoice in 2021 revealed that 40% of parents surveyed would choose a private school “if financial costs and transportation were of no concern.”
Student diversity also is on the rise. In 2010–2011, 21% of students at NAIS member schools were students of color, and today that share is 31%. Today, children of color (up to age 17) make up 53.3% of the U.S. population of that age cohort. Our focus on belonging must be prioritized as our communities become more diverse, and as research over the decades has confirmed that enhancing school belonging has a positive effect on academic achievement and school engagement.
International student recruitment and retention has been a continual challenge throughout the pandemic. In a recent NAIS pop-up survey, only 20% of responding schools were extremely or very confident that they would meet their international student targets in the 2022–2023 year. Looking ahead five years, 42% of respondents felt that the international market would be worse or much worse than pre-COVID-19.
School leaders prioritized keeping their communities together throughout the pandemic, yet many worried they would be unable to meet the increased demand for financial aid. Although demand went up at the beginning of the pandemic as families lost jobs or left them to take care of children, demand is beginning to level off. At NAIS member schools, the percent of students on financial aid has consistently been at around 23–24% since 2010. That percentage began to rise in 2017–2018, achieved 27% in 2021–2021, and now is coming back down again. The average grant has been rising consistently, averaging $14,448 in 2015–2016 and $15,647 in 2021–2022.
Some Important Questions and Opportunities
As we look forward, there are pandemic trends that may change the nature of schools in more fundamental ways. In a report for the World Economic Forum, the global market research firm Ipsos highlighted 10, many of which will pose some interesting challenges and opportunities for schools. Five of those are particularly of note.
People proved adaptable in the face of massive change. Schools accepted new ways of doing things during the pandemic from online school to online events to online relationship building because there simply was no other choice. This was hard and the pace of change took its toll on mental and physical health, but it forced us to flex that all important muscle of adaptability. How will we continue to flex that muscle moving forward when we are not under pressure? Doing so will be important to future school growth and development.
We have a deeper understanding that mental health is as important as physical health. Independent school educators have always understood the connection between mental health and education outcomes, but the pandemic heightened this awareness, as well as an understanding of the connection between adult and student well-being. Schools can take the lead in becoming centers of community well-being, and, in the process, improve student outcomes and more successfully recruit and retain a workforce in the future.
Inequalities are widening. The pandemic widened the gap between the haves and have-nots, with the U.S. middle class virtually disappearing. Every school will need to decide its purpose and approach to a society that is so unequal moving forward. If we aren’t intentional about that purpose and the business model that aligns with it, then the market will dictate it for us.
The “empty planet” scenario is now more likely, with a population bust around the corner. Ipsos noted that “Humanity, made up of 7.8 billion souls today, will be hard-pressed to get to 8.5 billion before it tips into decline and will round out the century about where it is now.” Schools need to begin scenario planning now for the school market of the future, which may be unlike any ever faced.
Maintaining public trust is difficult. Trust is the foundation of a healthy community yet trust in core institutions has been eroding for decades. With teachers in the top three most trustworthy professions, according to Ipsos Global Trustworthiness Index, how can we build on that to restore trust in our schools and build community when people need it most?
Although everyone is hoping for a more certain 2022, and perhaps a return to what we knew and loved, the reality is that there is much we should leave behind and much we should rebuild anew. In a 2016 article for Harvard Business Review, “How To Get Better at Dealing with Change,” organizational psychologist Nick Tasler shared some sage advice: “Accept the past, but fight for the future.” I don’t want to downplay the significant headwinds we may face in the years ahead, but I firmly believe that independent schools have a future worth fighting for. It will matter to so many children and to our society.
