This article appeared as "Passing the Torch" in the Summer 2023 issue of Independent School.In my 25 years at NAIS, change has been a constant for our community. From shifting demographics to economic volatility to technology, schools have flexed through the decades to accommodate the impacts and leverage the opportunities of myriad forces. In 2003, NAIS began to observe the acceleration of these forces and the potential detrimental effects and lost opportunities that result when schools don’t stay ahead of change. We started to invest in trend research, and our first major initiative, “The NAIS Opinion Leaders Survey: Forecasting Independent Education to 2025,” released in 2005, invited thought leaders to forecast the major areas of change for schools over the coming two decades.
With two years left to go until 2025, I revisited the report to assess the accuracy of the predictions. I was astonished at how closely the five major forecasts described our journey over the past two decades:
The demographic reality. The coming decades foretell great change in our demographic makeup. As a population, we are aging and becoming much more racially diverse. Shifts in education levels and income will further polarize our society.
Social forces. The stress of our fast-paced society will put increasing pressures on children, creating a new set of emotional and physical problems. Diversity of all types will challenge our schools to meet individual needs and build community at the same time. A new kind of worker will demand unprecedented flexibility.
Economic trends. The divide between the haves and have-nots will widen greatly, with the middle class as we know it slowly disappearing. Schools will struggle with remaining financially viable yet affordable. The aging of the population, coupled with a coming labor shortage, will place new financial burdens on schools as they compete to attract and retain high-quality workers.
The shifting political scene. Government, opinion leaders, the public, and our own consumers will demand greater accountability and transparency. Political polarization will increase, but over time could lead to a return to a more centrist majority. And trust in the news media will erode, leading consumers to seek out other information outlets.
Science and technology at warp speed. Advances in science and technology will occur so rapidly that they will challenge our ability to deal with them, while at the same time offer unparalleled educational opportunities. As a society, we will have to deal with the consequences of neglecting our planet and its natural resources.
Doesn’t it seem like a description of 2023? We did not get the shifting political scene completely right and hadn’t anticipated black swan events like the Great Recession and the pandemic, but otherwise our forecasters were quite prescient.
As I look ahead, these forecasts continue to be on point, but their impacts are happening more quickly and going deeper. For example, polarization is at its highest level ever, impacting every aspect of school operations, and trust in core U.S. institutions has plunged to its lowest levels since being tracked, according to Gallup. Mental health challenges only intensified because of the pandemic and will continue to affect children’s ability to learn and thrive in the years ahead. And sadly, violence against children, particularly in the form of school shootings, has become a regular occurrence.
As I pass the mantle of the NAIS presidency to my friend and colleague Debra Wilson, I am certain she will continue to expertly guide schools through these challenges and the yet-unknown ones that lay ahead. I recently had the chance to sit down with her to explore her hopes and dreams and what she sees ahead for our community.
Donna Orem: You’ve developed a deep understanding of independent schools, most recently during your tenure as president of the Southern Association of Independent Schools (SAIS), and of course, during your time as general counsel at NAIS. What are you most looking forward to as you begin this new chapter in your independent school career?
Debra Wilson: There has never been a time when independent schools have more ably illustrated what we do and why it matters—how truly different and necessary what we deliver to families is in the education landscape. I’m most looking forward to looking to the future of independent education and the unique role we fill in this country post-pandemic by engaging with the incredible and diverse range of NAIS schools.
As you set out on your Member Connections Tour to get to know more people and to gain a deeper understanding about what schools are going through in all parts of the country, what are you most eager to learn? How will this listening tour help shape your vision for the organization and the independent school community at large?
I’m eager to hear about what people’s journeys have looked like over the past several years. We have not seen, in most of our lifetimes, a time of such fundamental upheaval and change on so many levels and, in my experience with SAIS, no one’s journey has been the same. These experiences have changed how we think about work, purpose, leadership, belonging, joy, and the road ahead for ourselves as individuals and for our institutions. Understanding this and the nuances of these experiences will be key to seeing the road ahead and what we need to build, where we need to grow, and how to get there.
You’re a systems-level thinker and adept at building consensus and challenging the status quo. How will you leverage these—and your other strengths and talents—in this new leadership role?
If there is one thing I have learned in the past few years, it’s that I have no idea what the answer to that question will be. As I talk with and learn from the people and resources around me, both those within my organization or the independent school ecosystem as well as those outside our space, I start to see and hear strategic threads or pulses. So much of doing good work is first identifying the threads, putting them together, and then engaging with the people most passionate about wrestling with those issues. Sometimes the hardest part can be getting out of the way.
You’re also deeply passionate about the NAIS mission and helping school leaders and boards. What do you hope to focus on in your work leading the organization and in your work with schools and thought leaders?
We must work on ways to make school leadership more sustainable at all levels. Some of this work is in mindsets, other parts are in skill sets, systems, and willingness to experiment. I’m also eager to explore how boards and leadership vary in different types and sizes of schools. In my time at SAIS working more directly with boards of all kinds of schools and reflecting on the data from the Head of School Database, it’s clear that there are fundamental differences around school size and context that we don’t always address—but need to—in how we approach governance and leadership.
The independent school community has been through a lot these past few years. What do you see as the greatest challenges we’re facing?
The greatest challenges to our industry right now vary a bit by region, but the culture wars will continue to batter education from all sides, changing demographics will be challenging for some parts of the country, the economy will continue to delight and otherwise surprise us—often in the same hour—and advances in technology will require an open-mindedness and childlike fascination that can be hard for educational institutions. All these variables cause headwinds in staff hiring and retention, enrollment management, financial sustainability, and relevance. These are not new challenges, although they are now presenting a bit differently, and certainly with more intensity. The challenge I worry about the most is more existential—overall wellness. If adults and children are struggling with clinical issues of wellness, it is almost impossible for them to engage as they need to to teach, learn, and participate. How we build our cultures and communities to provide healthy places of belonging, purpose, relevance, and respect will ultimately define our institutions, their alumni, and their staff for generations to come.
What are some of the greatest opportunities you see ahead for independent schools?
I firmly believe that our sector of education is the one most likely to succeed in creating the cultures and communities that foster healthy lives and futures for our staff and students. We have the privilege of living our missions in structures that we can mold to fit the needs and imperatives of the moment, but it will take courage, conviction, and our communities to fully live up to this moment. That is truly exciting work and I am looking forward to doing it with our schools.
Thank you, Debra, for this conversation and for your continued work on behalf of our schools.
And a big thank you to all of you for a fabulous 25 years at NAIS. I have been blessed to spend a lifetime in and with independent schools. There is much I am proud of in my service to schools, but it’s the relationships I have formed that have nourished me and will continue to do so in retirement. Let’s stay in touch!
