By Joseph Corbett and Amada Torres
From the pandemic’s beginning in early 2020 throughout the following school year, independent schools struggled to maintain their enrollment. Almost three in 10 schools lost 10% or more of their students, with elementary and preschools experiencing the largest declines. The question was: Were these losses part of a larger shift away from private education? Or were they a temporary response to the pandemic?
Analyses of NAIS enrollment data suggest that for many schools, the steep declines were temporary.
In the 2021-2022 school year, the median number of independent school students per school was significantly higher than in 2020-2021: 396 vs. 378. Lower grade levels and day schools fared better than their peers, with pre-K through third grade all experiencing above 4% enrollment increases.…
As of Trendbook press time in summer 2022, the United States was continuing to experience surges of COVID-19 infection that made many aspects of life unpredictable, including education. Nevertheless, rebounding enrollment in the 2021-2022 school year, and early signs of healthy enrollment in 2022-2023, offer reason for optimism that independent schools will continue to play an important role in supporting students and their families.
Median Enrollment Has Exceeded Pre-Pandemic Levels
Median enrollment per independent school increased significantly in 2021-2022, surpassing enrollment levels prior to the pandemic. After decreasing nearly 3% between 2019-2020 and 2020-2021, median enrollment rebounded by 4.6% between 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, increasing from 378 to 396.Analyzing enrollment by school provides more insight into how widespread enrollment growth has been. Between 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, 40% of schools experienced moderate enrollment growth (increase of up to 10%). A smaller percentage (20%) experienced high growth (increase of more than 10%). In contrast, 23% saw a moderate enrollment decline (decrease of up to 10%), and 16% experienced a high decline (decrease of more than 10%)….
These trends do not appear to be short-term responses to pandemic-driven declines. Median enrollment growth between 2011-2012 and 2021-2022 was 9%. In that same period, 66% of schools increased their enrollment.…
A closer analysis shows that the growth encountered in total enrollment during 2021-2022 was driven by the recovery experienced in lower grade levels, particularly in prekindergarten.
While total enrollment dropped in almost every single grade in 2020-2021, enrollment increased in every grade except 11th in 2021-2022. Prekindergarten led the upturn with a 21.3% increase compared to a decline of 12.1% the previous year. In addition to the large rebound recorded for prekindergarten, all of the lower grades from kindergarten through third grade reported enrollment increases that were larger than the growth observed for all grades.
What could explain such a dramatic turnaround, especially since the demographic outlook appears so unfavorable in the early grades?
Researchers are still examining the effects of the pandemic. But as it continued to disrupt K-12 education in 2021-2022, preliminary information indicates that parents increasingly sought out schools that were fully in person rather than remote. Given the greater autonomy of independent schools, they had more flexibility to reopen. During 2020-2021, many kindergartners were red-shirted or simply kept at home. But as parents’ concerns about learning loss and children’s isolation increased, they may have chosen in-person independent schools as a better alternative to the remote education offered by public schools. The implementation of COVID-19 safety protocols, larger and more spread-out campuses, and smaller class size may have given parents some assurance that their children would be safe in an independent school environment.
The safety factor would have been especially important for parents of young children, since no vaccines were available for children under 5 and the vaccine for 5- to 11-year-olds did not become available until late in 2021. Sending their kids to school meant that parents could go to work themselves or work at home without having to monitor their children’s remote schooling.
The Trendbook, NAIS’s annual guide to issues affecting independent schools, includes research, data, Strategic Questions, Action Steps, and Resources. Read about additional trends in enrollment, financial aid, leadership, learning and teaching, and more in the 2022-2023 Trendbook, available in the NAIS Bookstore.